Though it’s hard for the Arsenal fan to accept their beloved captain is likely ending his nine-year love affair with the team to return to his home, its time to accept it.  It’s time to move on to the next chapter.  It’s time to end what has become an every summer on-again, off-again fiasco.  I mean after all, Arsenal can replace him with Samir Nasri.

Wait…what?

With rumours of both Fabregas and Nasri leaving this summer, even the most optimistic Arsenal fan has to ask their self if they can possible endure another trophyless season.  The thought of losing both of the young talented midfielders seems too much too endure.

The Captain Abandons Ship

In the case of Fabregas, he has always had eyes for another.  In some ways, he was always a Barcelona player in an Arsenal jersey.  He has never taken real steps to stop the relentless chatter about his possible move to Barcelona.  He’s been happy let the speculation continue in the hopes it would lead to a move to Spain.  The simple fact is, there was really never an amount of money contract wise that could keep Fabregas at Arsenal forever.

Professionally though, Cesc never let this fact affect his play on the pitch for the Gunners.  It is his scintillating play, after all, that has garnered him such adoration from Arsenal fans worldwide.  Though football is the ultimate team game, his is the rare talent that could stand out amongst the 22 men on the pitch.

I’ll Be Missing You

Over the last five seasons, Fabregas created 466 scoring chances.  That’s more than any other player in the Premier League over that span.  During 2010-11, Fabregas completed 38 through balls, leading the Premier League.  In fact, that number is FIFTEEN more than the next highest total by a single player in the Premier League last campaign (note:  he played just 23 games).  When looking at the top 5 leagues in Europe, Cesc had the best minutes per scoring chance created average of any player (one every 28.6 minutes).  He also had an assist every 172 minutes, best in the top 5 leagues.

Though there is no statistic to quantify it, but it can be argued that the fact that Arsenal had the most goal scorers in the Premier League Last season (17) was helped by the fact that Fabregas is such a great facilitator.  You simply cannot replace his quality or questions his effort.

The last thing I’ll say about the Fabregas situation is this:  Arsenal needs to get the 40 million in return they are asking for to make the sale worth it.  Quite frankly, if Barcelona pays less for the Arsenal Captain than Liverpool did for Andy Carroll, calm acceptance should be replaced by obnoxious ranting.

Au Revoir, Arsene

And then there is the curious case of Samir Nasri, Arsenal’s oft-injured, mercurial French midfielder.  If we are all honest with ourselves, Nasri has played about six months of quality football during his three years at Arsenal.  The other two and half campaigns have been spent on the sideline injured; showing flashes of greatness, (the two goal game against Manchester United during his first season) or disappearing from games (see March through May of this season).

Nasri’s desire to leave the Gunners seems much nastier and dirtier than Fabregas.  May just be my opinion, but to me he’s like a mercenary, using Arsenal to go to the next team.  Is that my Arsenal fan bias?  Possibly.  Maybe I don’t feel quite the same way about Fabregas because he has been so good for so long that it’s hard to wrap my head around looking at him in a negative light.

Nasri is trying to use the first few months of the past season to get a huge pay raise from another team in Europe, and it is a bit much for me to take.  But, he has all of the cards in this, with just 12 months left on his contract he could be out the door on a Bosman transfer next summer, leaving Arsenal with a about a 14 million dollar loss (actual transfer amount with Marseille varies depending on news source).

Good Riddance or Please Don’t Go?

Nasri  would do well to remember his form the season prior to last wasn’t good enough to earn him a spot on the French National team for last summer’s World Cup (said the scorned Arsenal fan). Maybe William Gallas was right about Nasri after all.  Maybe like Cesc, he was always only here for now putting himself above the club.

At this point, Nasri may as well find a new team because if will be tough for him to win the fans back at the Emirates Stadium.  Remember the season after Emmanuel Adebayor flirted with other suitors?  He wasn’t exactly welcomed back to London with open arms and affection.  Nasri may want to take a look at how that all turned out for Adebayor, who is now looking for a team that will actually match his insane wage demands and actually wants him on their roster.  For that matter, he could look at Alex Hleb who saw the bright lights of Spain calling him away from Arsenal.

He played for relegated Birmingham last season (and not very well).

Midfield Exodus:  By the Numbers

Remember all of those glaring statistics from earlier above Fabregas creating scoring chances and goals for the Gunners?  Compare that to the one, single, solitary Nasri had in the Premier League last season (though he did add three in the Champions League, to be fair).  On the whole, the loss of Nasri will not hurt as much as the loss of Fabregas.

Arsenal won 50% of the games that Nasri started over the last three seasons.  The Gunners won 64% of the games he did not start.  During last season, Arsenal won 46% of the games Nasri started, but won 64% of the games he did not start.

Compare that with the captain’s numbers on the same stats:  in the last three seasons 61% won with Cesc in the lineup and 43% without.  During 2010-11, 64% won with Cesc, and just 31% without (thanks to the great @Orbinho for that stat).

Nasri has scored 18 goals in 85 games for Arsenal (.21 goals per game).  Fabregas has scored 35 goals in 212 games (.17 goals per game).  Fabregas had 77 assists in those games (.36 per game).  Nasri accounted for 15 assists (.18 per game)

Looking Ahead in North London

With all that said, the Arsenal fan must look ahead to the new season despite the imminent losses of these two midfielders.  But take solace fellow Gooners.  It would appear the great forehead of Gervinho is coming to London to save the day!  Though I take no transfer as a done deal until announced anymore (see:  Schwarzer, Mark).

The question at hand is this:  should Arsene Wenger take the truckload of cash he’ll bring in from selling Fabregas and Nasri (and lord willing also at least selling Squillaci and Almunia) and buy veterans, or should he go with a youth movement and start over?

Well, he went for youth the past few years.  How many trophies did that win?  Quite frankly it did not create consistent exciting football either.  It has provided mental errors, lack of discipline and periods of just poor play.  Last year’s team was supposed to be the one to win something (anything!).  The youth movement following the 2005-06 campaign had come to the point where it was now or never.

Guess it’s never.

Surely I look at these things through the eyes of a pessimistic Arsenal fan, but this just hasn’t worked.  Arsenal scored fewer goals during this campaign than the last, while giving up more goals than any season since the start of Wenger’s reign at the helm of the North London ship.  The team needs to be tougher and more disciplined.  Arsenal needs more Jack Wilshere and less Tomas Rosicky.

This is why it is a bit troubling that most of the transfer rumors revolve around offensive players (Gervinho, Juan Mata, and Ricardo Alvarez).  The team had a clear deficiency in defense last year that needs addressed, and it needs addressed with tough veteran defensive players.  Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t see Juan Mata (though a fantastic player) being the answer to the mental or defensive breakdowns that lead to blown four goal lead at Newcastle.

It’s time to change to the spending habits at the club and “splash some cash.”  Arsenal’s hold on a top four position has never been in more peril, especially with the probable losses of Fabregas and Nasri.  Manchester United has retooled.  Chelsea has a new manager and loads of talent.  Manchester City is looking to spend big (again).  If Liverpool can be the team it was in the second half of last season, they will be reckoned with.  The other big teams are adding world-class talent.  Why does it seem like Arsenal are subtracting it?

Granted, it’s the beginning of July.  There is still time to add to the squad.  I am willing to be patient (though I’ve been patient since the 2005 FA Cup final).  But if the only major signing of the summer ends up being Carl Jenkinson, the Gunners are in trouble.

Is This the New Norm?

Arsenal needs to prove its still a “Big Club.”  World-class players with experience and caps for their National teams need to be coming in, not going out.  The most frustrating part about all of this is in knowing that no matter whom Arsene replaces Fabregas with, he won’t be as good.  It’s just that simple.

In trying to look at the situation with Fabregas logically,  maybe we were the mercenaries with Cesc.  Knowing all along he was never ours, but using him to win us games and hopefully trophies.  Here’s hoping that this saga ends quickly, so we can all move on with our lives.  The Nasri move needs to happen soon as well so the manager can re-invest that money in new squad additions.  It’s time to add experience and quality.

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