It’s been widely reported across the newspapers today that Arsenal are planning to offer Arsene Wenger a massive new 5-year contract that would see him remain at the club until 2017. He was non-committal when asked about it, but that’s just the way Arsene is.

This naturally led to a lot of discussion as to whether Arsene Wenger should be given or indeed deserves a new contract as Arsenal manager.

The best we’ve ever had

Arsene Wenger has been the greatest manager Arsenal has ever had. He revolutionised the way they played football, won more trophies than any other manager, and has been the most loyal servant to Arsenal over the last 16 years. He has a way of inspiring players to be better than people thought they could, and has triumphed against insurmountable odds on countless occasions.

He’s a massive name in world football. Player after player who sign for Arsenal say Wenger was an influence in them joining. Young players often prefer to develop their skills at Arsenal rather than elsewhere, even teams who offer better financial terms or promises of first team football.

He’s often criticised for stubbornness, but this tends to reflect a dedication to his principles more than anything else, and great principles they are. As a keen economist as well as a football fanatic, Wenger has long advocated a sustainable and fair financial playing field for football, as shown by his support of FFP regulations and his attempts to run Arsenal in a sustainable fashion. This is not to the detriment of on-pitch achievement, however. Because of the Emirates move Wenger was forced to run on a budget less than that of many mid-table sides and has still consistently kept Arsenal at the upper levels of English football.

Seven barren years

For all his successes, it is true that Arsenal haven’t won  a trophy for seven, going on eight years. Wenger must take some of the blame for this. But not nearly as much as is apportioned to him. There are so many factors responsible for Arsenal’s dry spell.

These includes the introduction of oil money into the transfer market, meaning players he’s groomed since they were young suddenly forget their loyalties and run off for a bigger pay packet. Arsenal are also priced out of many deals when the Manchester City’s of this world get involved.

His stubbornness is a factor, of course. He’s refused to alter wage structures to keep certain players, and is often seem as somewhat of a “cheapo” in the transfer market, though this is more due to his financial restraints and his reluctance to spend for spending’s sake.

The fact that Stan Kroenke, Arsenal’s majority shareholder, would rather Arsenal stayed at the level they’re at now instead of striving for success, possibly at the risk of expense, doesn’t help Arsenal either. Nor does the failure and lack of accountability of players that Wenger supports to the hilt, only to see them refuse to do the same.

Can he keep up?

It’s also been said that Wenger has lost the tactical nous he once had. Arsenal have attempted a total possession style of football in recent years, only to see themselves easily outmuscled by teams with more power than skill. Wenger seems to lack a ‘Plan B’, something to turn to in times of trouble, and this often sees Arsenal go on runs of poor form (though the bizarre bad luck with injuries doesn’t help).

But recently he’s changed. In both his recruiting policies and tactics, we can see Arsenal are moving towards a faster counter-attacking style, with experienced players joining rather than young prospects. Arsenal have more of a physical presence. The defensive frailties are less. Arsenal seem to be moving forward again. The question is whether the same old curse will strike them, the injuries, the loss of form in winter.

That may be the making of Wenger’s future.

His time will come

When asked about his renewal, Wenger stated that if he feels he cannot take Arsenal forward, he will retire. The decision will be made by him and solely him, probably based on the next two seasons. “Two years are a long time in football”, as he says.

With Arsenal’s new commercial deals coming up in 2014, Wenger would have access to a far larger pool of money than he did in the past. But would he spend it? Possibly not. His principles don’t advocate spending irresponsibly. We’d see an increase in spending, but not the level some fans may expect, and that would increase negativity towards him.

So it’s possible Wenger will step aside in 2014, to allow a new, younger manager to enjoy the empire he helped to build. Though he wouldn’t be able to revel in the success, his later years would be seen as those of a gatekeeper, instead of the desperate clinging of a man who’s lost the plot.

And maybe that’s what he really wants.

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