People will look at the league table from 12 months ago to judge how a team is performing in relation to last season. But this doesn’t accurately reflect the progression (or regression) of a team from season to season. The order of the fixture list can leave a team in an artificial league position that isn’t a clear indication of where it will end up in May.

To fix that problem, I’ve chosen to compare the matches that have been played this season against the result of the same fixture from last year. This way, you get a better picture of whether or not Arsenal and United have improved or declined this season. *Spoiler* - It’s not looking good for either team.

United 13/14 Vs United 14/15

Although David Moyes was regularly criticised, and Van Gaal has been on the receiving end of a lot of praise, United are actually performing worse under the Dutchman than they were when the Scot was in charge.

If you exclude the games against newly promoted teams (Burnley, Leicester and QPR), United have played eight games this season, and accumulated twelve points in the process - scoring ten goals and conceding nine.

Yet in the same fixtures last year, United picked up sixteen points, scoring thirteen goals and conceding just seven.

 
These figures don’t take into consideration the fact that Moyes’ team had the burden of the additional games that came with reaching the semi-final of the League cup and quarter-final of the Champions League. When they are taken into account, it totals to seventeen non-Premier League games for Moyes; including the Community Shield and FA cup (which the 14/15 United team are yet to enter), to Van Gaal’s singular non-Premier League game (a 4-0 loss to MK Dons in the League Cup).

Arsenal 13/14 Vs Arsenal 14/15

Arsenal fare even worse in their corresponding fixtures; they’re a full six points behind the 13/14 season after 9 games, and it’s simply not good enough. Everton (away) is the only game that Arsenal have improved upon from their result season. This year’s team have dropped points to Tottenham, Hull and Swansea; whereas in their last campaign, they picked up a total nine of points in these three games. Despite their makeshift defence this season, Arsenal have actually conceded fewer goals than they did in the 13/14 season. This is largely explained by the notoriously poor away games to Chelsea and Everton, where nine of these thirteen goals over were conceded.

Arsenal 14/15 Vs United 14/15

The league table currently divides the teams by one point. But if we use the same approach, and factor in the fixtures that both teams have played, Arsenal are actually three points ahead. I have used the mutual teams that they have played, and ignored the destination of the fixture, to determine the points difference, as the only identical fixtures the teams have played are Palace (home) and Sunderland (away).

Whilst Arsenal are outperforming their northern rivals, it will be of little solace to the Gunners considering how poorly both teams are doing. United’s nine points from these eight games is bordering relegation worthy, whilst Arsenal’s twelve points is hardly much better.

At this stage, the Premier League is already as good as won by Chelsea, but thankfully for both teams, nobody seems in a hurry to take the other Champions League spots. The other teams that qualified for Europe last season are currently occupying the 3^rd, 6^th, 10^th, 11^th and 12^th positions in the league. Tomorrow’s game may well be a case of trying not to be the worse team.