The Luis Suarez transfer saga has undoubtedly been the main talking point this transfer window.

Like Manchester United’s chase of Robin van Persie twelve months ago, the story has lingered for weeks on end, though the outcome is less predictable.

As with any transfer, there are several parties involved, and several complications make it unlikely that the transfer will go through before the beginning of September.

While two key parties are keen on the move, namely Arsenal and Suarez, Liverpool are refusing to change their stance, maintaining that Suarez is not for sale, or at least should not be sold for less than half the potential fee for Gareth Bale.

Liverpool owner John Henry has described Arsenal’s pursuit of the Uruguayan as “ludicrous”, citing footballing reasons, namely that Arsenal are a key rival for a European place, and that Liverpool would struggle to find a replacement in time.

Thus arguably the most important party in the transfer will most likely impede its completion.

Suarez maintains his stance

Suarez however has maintained his stance. He wants to be playing Champions League football and feels it is the minimum he deserves. Liverpool manager Brendan Rodgers has accused Suarez of “total disrespect”, in his outspoken desire to leave, and sentenced the forward to solitary training, which will only further entrench the rift between player and club.

The second most important party, the player, therefore clearly wants to move. Whilst a club will rarely keep a player against his will, as happened a year ago with van Persie, ultimately the club has the last say, and Suarez, under a long-term contract, is Liverpool’s most realistic hope of a returning to European football.

van Persie saga

“When you are a kid, everybody wants to play for Liverpool” were Suarez’s words as he signed his extended deal last year, reminiscent of van Persie’s comments upon his arrival in Manchester, “I listened to the little boy inside me”. Both players, van Persie a year ago and Suarez today, sought moves to bigger clubs.

Arsenal were never in a position to keep van Persie. The Dutchman had given several years’ service to the club and wanted a chance at winning trophies, which he felt that, he could not do at Arsenal. With a year left in his contract, Arsenal risked losing upwards of £20 million.

Suarez is contracted for several more seasons and, at 26, is three years younger than van Persie was when he moved north. The key behind the potential transfer could thus be whether Rodgers thinks Suarez will give his all this season.

Outcome

Several complications mean it is unlikely that Suarez will be playing in an Arsenal shirt come September. The crucial party, Liverpool FC, are unwilling to sell, and it is unlikely the Premier League will rule against them. Henry’s statements however should not compel Arsenal to completely rule out the signing, as Fernando Torres was supposedly not going anywhere.

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